The Comfort of a Simple Win Rate

Ask most manufacturing leaders their win rate, and you’ll hear a neat percentage:

“We win about 45% of quotes.”

It sounds precise. It sounds measurable. But in chemical manufacturing, that number can be a mirage.

Take an example from a batch-based producer:
They quote a customer three batch sizes — 100 gallons, 200 gallons, or 400 gallons. The customer chooses the 200 option.

So what’s the win rate?

• 100%: You got the business. That's all that matters.

• 33%: You won 1 of 3 quoted sizes. But you could have won all the quotes.

• 28.6% — You captured 200 of 700 total gallons quoted.

All are technically correct. All tell different stories.

Why Win Rate Alone Misleads Executives

In manufacturing, a win’s value depends on far more than whether the customer said “yes.”

Here are some key factors we see with our customers that change the meaning of a “win”:

• Capacity fit - Does the order help or hurt your utilization strategy?

• Margin profile - is it above or below target profitability?

• Strategic alignment - is this a high-priority customer or just filling capacity?

• Volume mix - Did you win the optimal size or the least efficient one?

A small, high-margin batch at the perfect time can be more valuable than a huge, low-margin batch that disrupts your schedule. But a flat win rate treats them equally.

From Win Rate to Deal Score

Instead of a binary win/loss metric, you can create a Deal Score: a single grade (0–100) that blends all the relevant factors. Some companies we see use the following in their Deal Scores:

• Margin

• Volume fit

• Capacity utilization impact

• Strategic customer value

In theory, deal scores should tell you:

• Which deals to prioritize.

• Which to adjust pricing for.

• Which to walk away from.

Two Ways to Score Deals

1. Deterministic (Rules-Based) Scoring

You define explicit weights and formulas for each factor. Here's an example

• Margin = 40% of score

• Capacity fit = 30%

• Volume alignment = 20%

• Strategic alignment = 10%

Pros: Transparent, explainable, easy to audit.
Cons: Static. Needs constant updates when market conditions shift. Imagine if tariffs change a raw material price you don't have in stock, or a last minute order from a key customer comes in.

2. AI-Driven (Adaptive) Scoring

You define the principles; the AI learns the patterns.

• Pulls live data from ERP, CRM, production, and pricing systems.

• Adjusts weightings dynamically based on historical performance and market shifts.

• Factors in external realities like tariffs, raw material price swings, competitor pricing moves, and logistics constraints.

Why this matters:

• Tariffs: If an import duty spikes costs for one product line, AI can instantly lower the score for deals that depend on it and suggest the right pass-through price.

• Competitor moves: If a competitor drops prices, AI detects changing win/loss patterns and reprioritizes.

• Raw material swings: A sudden 15% cost increase can be reflected in scoring instantly.

  
  

Pros: Adapts to real-world volatility, finds hidden patterns humans miss.
Cons: Requires trust in an AI system to deliver a grade consistent with strategic priorities.

The Executive Dilemma

Deterministic scoring is often the minimum bar to move beyond a crude win rate percentage.

But in an industry where tariffs, costs, and capacity can change in a week, static rules go stale fast. And the more complex the scoring system, the more maintenance required by employees to keep it fresh.

An AI scoring agent doesn’t replace your strategy, but it makes it adaptive. It applies your priorities dynamically, based on the market you’re competing in today, not last quarter.

The Real Question

The question isn’t:

“What’s our win rate?”

It’s:

“Are we winning the right deals, at the right price, for the right operational outcome — right now?”

When the answer to that is powered by adaptive scoring, you stop chasing a vanity metric and start steering your business toward wins that truly matter.

Quick Reference

What is a win rate in manufacturing?
Win rate is the percentage of quotes a manufacturer wins. Traditionally, it’s calculated as deals won ÷ total quotes.

Why is win rate misleading in chemical manufacturing?
Because not all wins are equally valuable — factors like capacity fit, margin, and strategic alignment change the impact of each deal.

What is deal scoring?
Deal scoring assigns a numerical value to each potential win based on multiple factors, giving a more accurate picture of deal quality.

How can AI improve manufacturing quoting?
AI can score deals in real time, factoring in market changes, cost shifts, and operational constraints — ensuring you pursue the most valuable wins.